The Way Trump Achieved a Gaza Strip Breakthrough That Escaped Joe Biden
Initially, Israel's air strike on the Hamas delegation in Doha appeared like yet another escalation that drove the prospect of peace out of reach.
This strike on September 9 violated the sovereignty of an US partner and threatened expanding the hostilities into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy seemed to be collapsing.
Instead, it turned out to be a pivotal event that has led in a deal, declared by Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
That represents a objective that Trump, and Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
This marks just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, administering Gaza and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
Yet if this agreement holds, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that escaped Joe Biden and his diplomatic team.
Trump's distinct approach and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Middle Eastern nations appear to have played a role in this breakthrough.
However, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also factors at play beyond the control of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has called Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". Moreover these positive statements have been backed up by actions.
Throughout his initial time in office, the president relocated the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to the contested capital and abandoned a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are against international law, the view under global norms.
When Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran in June, the US leader ordered US bombers to strike the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those visible shows of backing may have given Trump the room to exert more pressure on Israel behind the scenes. As per sources, the president's negotiator, his representative, browbeat Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of a number of captives.
After Israeli forces launched strikes against Syria's military in July, including hitting a Christian church, Trump pressured his counterpart to change course.
The leader exhibited a level of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, according to Aaron David Miller of the a think tank. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli prime minister that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was always more tenuous.
The Biden team's "bear hug strategy" held that the US had to support the nation publicly in order to allow it to influence the nation's military actions behind closed doors.
Underneath this was Biden's decades-long of backing for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked dividing his own political backing, while his successor's loyal conservative voters gave him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
In the end, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had little impact than the reality that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was not ready to reach an agreement.
Eight months into his new administration, with Iran chastened, the militant group to its immediate north greatly diminished and the coastal strip in ruins, all its major strategy objectives had been achieved.
Commercial Background Assisted Secure Support from Arab States
The Israeli missile attack in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a local national but no Hamas officials, prompted Trump to issue an ultimatum to the prime minister. Hostilities had to stop.
Trump had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in Gaza. He provided American military might to Israel's campaign in Iran. But an attack on Qatar soil was a different matter completely, pushing him closer to the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
A number of administration figures have told the press that this was a turning point which motivated the president to exert maximum pressure to finalize an agreement.
The leader's close ties with the Arab monarchies are widely known. Trump has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He began both his presidential terms with official trips to the kingdom. This year, he also stopped in Qatar and the UAE capital.
The president's Abraham Accords, which established ties between the Jewish state and several Muslim states, such as the Emirates, was the most significant foreign policy success of his first term.
The time he spent in the cities of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months contributed to shift his perspective, says Ed Husain of the a policy institute. Trump did not travel to Israel on this regional tour but went to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where he heard consistent appeals to bring an end to the war.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on Doha, Trump sat nearby as the prime minister personally called Qatar to apologise. And later that day, the prime minister signed off on the president's comprehensive proposal for Gaza - one that additionally had the support of influential Arab states in the region.
If the president's relationship with Netanyahu provided him the room to pressure Israel to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and assisted them persuade the group to commit to the deal.
"One of the things that clearly happened was that the US leader gained influence with the Israelis, and indirectly with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. The capacity to do this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the demands of the warring sides has been a challenge that lot of previous presidents have struggled with, and Trump seems to handle with some success."
The reality that Trump is much more popular in Israel than the prime minister personally was an advantage that he employed to his benefit, he adds.
Currently the Israeli government has committed to releasing over a thousand Palestinians held in its jails and has consented to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
Hamas will release all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, captured in the initial October 7 assault, which resulted in the loss of more than 1,200 Israelis.
A conclusion to the conflict, which has led to the devastation of the territory and the deaths of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal