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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still