Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.