Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”