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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."