‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Kitchen Fuel Stock.
The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's kitchens.
As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the a major restaurant body.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, local news say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers observe a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.
Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.
An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.
